Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Advisors Focus on Income Goals

The May 21 issue of Investment News reported that a recent survey of advisors at an Allianz summit showed that 88% of the advisors at the meeting believed that clients' major priority has now shifted to creating income at retirement. In earlier surveys, advisors priority had been to help clients accumulate wealth.

Of those advisors surveyed, 69% believed that purchasing an annuity was the best way to meet that particular need. "I think retirement income will be the market for the 21st century," said Robert MacDonald, chief executive of Allianz Income Management Services. "The companies that can solve this problem will emerge as the leaders."

Shocking, isn't it, that the CEO of an annuity provider would make such an outlandish statement?

In this case, however, there might actually be some truth to it. Annuities are good products for those earning mega-incomes who just can't put enough away in a traditional retirement plan. Good options for many of those people might include opening Simplified Employee Pensions (SEPs) or, for a few, even creating their own personal Defined Benefit Plan. But many high earners who don't control the business structure they work in may not be able to create these tax preferred structures. For them, rolling a big bunch of money into a tax deferred annuity and letting it grow tax deferred for a long time (to offset the relatively high fees in this products) can make sense.

The other folks who ought to be looking at the annuity products, however, are on the opposite end of the spectrum. In retirement, with not a lot of money and little tolerance for taking risk, these investors ought to consider a plain vanilla "immediate annuity" that will pay them an income stream for life.

These annuities take a lump sum investment and each year pay a portion back to the annuitant, for life. The risk facing the elderly is that they outlive their financial resources. An annuity transfers that risk to an insurance company, which can better afford to take the risk because they can spread the risk out among millions of customers.

Other tools in the planning kit include reverse mortgages and better comprehensive financial planning. A good plan should separate income oriented investments from "growth" oriented investments. The income oriented investments are all about wealth preservation and income generation. These include bank CD's, money market funds, bond portfolios, and annuities.

Growth portfolios ought not focus primarily on income generated. Long-time market commentator Ray DeVoe of The DeVoe Report wrote many years ago that, "more money has been lost 'reaching for yield' than at the point of a gun." Many high yield investments provide great current income, until you realize that what you thought was "income" was really "return of principal," and not even all of your principal was ultimately returned.

It is interesting to me that in the energy industry, some of the most expensive assets are those paying the highest dividends. They may only pay 6% now, versus 10% a few years back before their stock prices rocketed skyward, but 6% is still better than a Treasury bond so it sounds good, even if you will lose principal in the long run. That 6% dividend may represent 110% of earnings, but we like dividends because they are a "sure thing," at least until they're cut in half.

"Income" is the ultimate goal for most retiree portfolios. Annuities are a simple approach. Many of the closed-end funds being marketed to income oriented investors are high-risk high-fee products developed primarily in order to scoop up retiree assets while the scooping is good.

Caveat emptor. Buyer beware. Don't confuse a "return on equity" with a return OF equity. Watch out for the business end of a slick high yield packaged product. It could kill you.

Douglas B. May, CFA, is President of May-Investments, LLC and author of Investment Heresies.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Markets On High Alert

When we said, two months ago, that the February 27 sell-off would ultimately prove to be a “non-event,” we honestly didn’t expect to be quite so right…quite so quickly.

Now, 1120 points later (to the upside) where does this market stand?

The typical bull market doubles in price off the market bottom in a rally that lasts, on average, 2 years and 9 months from beginning to end. This rally, now almost 4 ½ years young, is the fourth longest in U.S. history since 1900. However, in percentage terms the rally has been sub-par, which suggests more upside opportunity ahead. So is the rally almost over, as the calendar suggests, or is there more money to be made?

Two key variables will likely determine the outcome. In spite of many traditional signs of a slowing economy, the job market is strong so workers remain confident of their future, willing and able to keep spending. Jobs are a lagging indicator, though, with cutbacks usually a result of Corporate America tightening its belts in the face of declining profits. Each week’s unemployment claims news release may soon take on the same significance that money supply numbers held for the market 25 years ago, particularly as the Presidential campaign season progresses.

The other thing to watch is whether weakness in the dollar will ever result in foreign investors, particularly in China, Japan, and the United Kingdom, reversing their willingness to continue funding our government and trade deficits. They don’t need to sell their current holdings, which are massive, to impact our interest rates. They just need to stop buying, which would likely force our long-term interest rates much higher, make bonds a more attractive alternative to stocks, and cause some of the private equity folks (and their bankers) to re-think their “let’s leverage this thing to its eyeballs” mode of doing business.

Neither one of these indicators currently suggest that it’s time to step to the sidelines. April was certainly a fun month to be fully invested, and so far the year has been kind to investors. The bull market lumbers on. But it would be a particularly bad time to be complacent.


Douglas B. May, CFA, is President of May-Investments, LLC and author of Investment Heresies.

Tuesday, May 1, 2007

Local Stocks Lag in a Strong Month for the Market

The Scout Partners Index of Western Colorado Stocks rose in April, gaining 3.4% versus a 4.4% monthly gain for the widely followed S&P 500 stock index (total return including dividends). The 25 stock index focuses on large companies whose operations have a significant impact in Western Colorado. It includes major Mesa County employers such as Wal-Mart, Halliburton, Kroger (City Markets), StarTek, CRH (United Companies), and the Union Pacific Railroad. Though the energy sector had a strong month overall, local energy service stocks generally lagged the market which contributed to the overall index underperforming the broad market.


Rising 17.5% in the month, Arch Coal (ACI) ended the month at $36.07 and was the strongest performer among local stocks. “Arch Coal raised its dividend and announced earnings that beat Street expectations,” said Doug May, President of Scout Partners, LLC. “but most of the stock’s run-up was early in the month, ahead of the announcement,” May said. May attributed the strong stock price to more talk about a new coal-to-liquids conversion process where the company is supplying coal to Houston-based DKRW. “DKRW just signed a contract to sell the synthetic gas to Sinclair Oil where it is used to produce ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel,” May observed. According to company officials, the process is economical as long as the price of oil remains above $40 per barrel. In mid-April, when the stock was running up, oil prices spiked up to $66 and closed the month at $65.71. Earlier in the month, the CEO of Arch Coal hinted that his company might be looking to acquire other coal mining assets after a judge revoked four permits allowing Massey Energy to mine coal in Central Appalachia, an obstacle that could make mining more difficult, raise coal prices, and boost the value of today’s reserves.

Mesa Air Group (MESA) was the worst performer in the index, returning -10.36% during the month of April including a 1.89% decline during Monday’s market decline. So far in 2007, the stock has declined 20%. “The analysts just hate the stock,” May said. “The Prudential analyst cut his target price from $16 to $9, and after the stock declines from to $8 a Credit Lyonnais analyst downgraded the stock from Add to Neutral and cuts the target price even further, to $7.20.” Six months ago, Mesa Air’s estimated 2007 earnings were $1.24 but estimates have since fallen to less than $1.00 per share.

Scout Partners equal weighted Index of Western Colorado Stocks is comprised of 25 stocks that hope to reflect, to some degree, business conditions inWestern Colorado. Reflecting the local economy, the index has a large (over 30%) concentration in the energy sector, which tends to drive index performance. The next largest sector concentration is in industrial stocks, which comprise over 20% of the portfolio. Local stocks are up 6.6% for the year while the overall market has returned +5.1% over the same time period.

Douglas B. May, CFA, is President of May-Investments, LLC and author of Investment Heresies.